US waives Iran oil sanctions for two months in payday worth up to $10 billion
US waives Iran oil sanctions for two months in payday worth up to $10 billion
Steven Nelson, Josh ChristensonMon, June 22, 2026 at 2:10 PM UTC
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WASHINGTON — The US government on Monday formally waived oil sanctions on Iran for two months — allowing for up to $10 billion in revenue as nuclear talks continued with Iranian officials in Switzerland.
The Treasury Department waiver lasts through Aug. 21, giving Iran the ability to openly sell its oil for the first time since the 1990s, meaning it will pocket new profits by charging market rate.
The waiver follows President Trump last week lifting the two-month US naval blockade of Iranian ports as part of a memorandum of understanding.
Commercial vessels seen in the Strait of Hormuz on June 17, 2026. Anadolu via Getty Images
It could allow Iran to take in an estimated $60 billion annually — or $10 billion for the two-month window — without having to be paid under the table.
Tehran has long sold its oil, mostly to China, in violation of US sanctions and can now eliminate discounts of about $8-10 per barrel, according to market analysiscited in US government reports.
Assuming an additional $10 per barrel, these new market-rate transactions could translate into roughly $14 million in additional daily profits — or about $840 million over the 60-day window.
The figure isn't precise because it depends on oil prices, which are plunging as the Strait of Hormuz reopens pursuant to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed last week.
The higher range also assumes that Iran's oil infrastructure centered on Kharg Island is fully operational.
A view of the Port of Kharg Island Oil on March 12, 2017. Getty Images
Clay Seigle, a non-resident scholar with the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, pegged the figure closer to $8 billion for Iran over the 60-day negotiating period based on current market conditions.
"Before the war, Iran was under pretty strict sanctions that scared away all their traditional customers… except for China, which was not afraid to defy the United States," Seigle said.
Tehran produced roughly 3 million barrels of oil per day and exported 1.6 million of those, he noted.
Now, with China not the only buyer, Iran will benefit from being able to sell its oil and "transact in US dollars," he added. "It could even be delivered to the United States."
"There's a possibility for Iran during the next few months to ramp up higher than the 1.6 [million barrel] exports," Seigle said. "They probably could get closer to 2 million barrels per day."
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Iranian tanker docks at Kharg Island. AFP via Getty Images
"Let's imagine that they're going to get around $70 a barrel, so $140 million a day times 60 days, you're talking about $8 billion plus dollars."
"This is the price for getting the exports resumed from the Gulf post-war," Siegle underscored. "Helping Iran discover it can put this chokehold on the world's economy whenever it wants."
Despite that, some Gulf nations such as UAE and Saudi Arabia have been able to divert millions of barrels through pipelines to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, amounting to roughly 4 million barrels in exports per day.
The US has also tapped strategic reserves.
But both are "a bridge for the main problem, which is Hormuz," he said.
An oil industry source added that the "limited duration" of the waivers "is unlikely to support a meaningful increase in Iranian production," with "near-term exports" instead relying on already stored barrels or cargo on tankers.
"A temporary waiver expands the pool of potential buyers, with India and other Asian importers among the most likely customers," the source noted."Iran also has an estimated 120 million barrels of crude oil already loaded onto tankers — roughly 40 million barrels still in the Persian Gulf and another 80 million barrels already en route to Asia — which could support a relatively quick rebound in exports," the source said.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office at the White House. REUTERS
"Prior to recent disruptions, Iran was exporting roughly 2.4 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products, and volumes could recover toward that level with some initial upside from inventories. Sustaining exports above those levels, however, would likely require longer-term waivers and greater certainty."
Vice President JD Vance, who took part in implementation talks with Iranian officials on Sunday and Monday in Switzerland, defended the looming action last week, saying sanctions were difficult to enforce before the war and did not impede Iran's exports to China, which then paid outside the US-governed international banking system.
The easing of oil sales is part of a trio of financial inducements for Iran to give up its highly enriched uranium following the signing of the MOU to end the nearly four-month war.
The Trump administration is also offering to unfreeze more than $100 billion in Iranian assets and facilitate a $300 billion Gulf Arab-financed reconstruction fund.
The inducements would be granted in phases, contingent on Iranian steps to relinquish uranium and sever aid to terrorist proxies.
Vance said Monday in Switzerland that unfrozen funds would not go directly to Iran, but would buy "American soy, American corn, and American wheat for the benefit of the Iranian people."
A similar concept was applied to $6 billion released in 2023 by then-President Joe Biden in exchange for five US citizens jailed in Iran. That money was transferred to Qatar for humanitarian purchases — but the release was paused when Iran-backed Hamas rampaged through southern Israel weeks later.
Source: “AOL Money”
